Conversely, the smart bettor would not forget that the favorite to win the Travers and the clubhouse leader to win the 3-year-old male championship already won the Belmont Stakes. The what-have-you-done-lately crowd would claim to being unimpressed with Essential Quality’s narrow victory in the Jim Dandy. Actually, all six of the challengers feel outclassed compared with Essential Quality. Miles D (12-1), lightly raced for trainer Chad Brown, and King Fury (15-1), a flop on turf three weeks ago for Kenny McPeek, feel outclassed in this race, at least in terms of winning it. But that scenario would also play into the hands – or hooves – of Essential Quality, wouldn’t it? Those two might need a lot of the speed up front to break down late. Keepmeinmind (6-1) got within a half-length of beating Essential Quality last month in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and Dynamic One (6-1) picked off six horses in his come-from-behind victory against restricted company in the Curlin Stakes.
Masqueparade’s last two wins came in a Churchill Downs allowance race and in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Jockey Miguel Mena tends to keep him just off the pace, and that pace has tended to be slow. The only problem there is that he actually never has been out front early in any of his races. Masqueparade (8-1) actually possesses most of the early speed. The problem with that theory is that Midnight Bourbon will not be alone. The forecast of rain this weekend would only help that strategy. quarter-horsing him out of a rail draw, take a ground-saving, 1¼-mile trip and lead the field from gate to wire? That is exactly how he got his last win, way back in January in the Grade 3 Lecomte. That cannot possibly happen again in the Midsummer Derby, can it?Ĭould Midnight Bourbon (9-2), carrying his fifth different jockey in as many starts, snap his five-race losing streak with Ricardo Santana Jr. Getting bumped at the start and queueing up in the carousel behind the horse that got loose on the lead had a lot to do with it. The Kentucky Derby showed he is not unbeatable. The odds-on price that Essential Quality will command at Saratoga will be a waste of one of the 36 picks each player must make in a bid to make the cut for the NHC’s climactic rounds Sunday.īut back to that bet against Essential Quality (4-5 on the morning line). It is all about racking up imaginary bankrolls based on the toteboards at racetracks around North America. The format of the tournament encourages smart value plays. Will anyone be crazy enough to go against Essential Quality in Saturday’s $1.25 million Travers Stakes? That specifically means any of the more than 460 competitors who have descended on Bally’s Las Vegas Hotel and Casino to start playing Friday for a $700,000 first prize in the National Horseplayers Championship.
The most popular race to watch this weekend may be the least popular to bet at the world’s biggest contest for horseplayers.
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